2021 prediction on Kenya politics


Via RV Pundit

1)  The economy will recover fast – but the government in financial problems – serious problems – and will need IMF bailout – and also debt rescheduling. The next budget projected down to 2.4 Trillion from 3.3 Trillion. It will need to be further slized to 2.0 Trillion

2) This is the year President Uhuru will understand what a lameduck president is – as 2022 election campaign get underway – politicians will be going to the ground – to recover lost ground mostly. He will become more lameduck as he pushes unpopular BBI and of course the government will be broke – and will have to push for punitive taxes – just to pay salaries.

3) BBI referendum won’t happen. IEBC will verify signatures possibly by mid February and it will move to counties for 3 months. I expect some injunction at that point. The best BBI can be ready for parliament is June 2021. Parliament at best will be ready for second reading in September – and being seen as unpopular – most MPs will not want to process it that fast. Will Uhuru be ready to pass BBI to IEBC in last Quarter of 2021 – leaving IEBC to hold BBI referendum in 1st Q of 2022 and election in 2nd Quarter?

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4) Jubilee implosion will continue. Uhuru may reconcile with Ruto – when the heat become too much or may attempt to impeach Ruto (which is hard because of 2/3 requirement both in senate and parliament) – but ultimately the war is on. Uhuru without GEMA ground will continue to be naked king – and now the gema leaders will abandon him – because Uhuru won’t be in ballot in 2022 while they will be facing the voters anger.

5) NASA implosion continues as they push BBI and support Uhuru unpopular gov. The NASA principals will wake up to find their supporters moved to Hustler Nation/Ruto corner. And if Uhuru was to reconcile with Ruto – then holding 2022 presidential election in 2022 will be useless exercises. Right now NASA have abandoned the people and their issues – and are hoping Uhuru can endorse one of them. Starting from Raila – Kalonzo- MaDVD – Gideon – all are hoping that Uhuru will issue an executive fiat to make them president.

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6) This time when likes of Matiangi/Kibicho will discover that politics iko na wenyewe. They will have to make hard decision to quit cabinet and go for politics – or wait until 1st Q of 2022 – I think civil servants need to resign six months to election. Majority will chicken out – and prefer to eat one more year of gov money and tenders.

7) Judiciary – which is now independent – will spring surprises along the way. Parliament is technical dissolved. Parliament has 100 act/bills invalidated for not involving senate – the senate need to get busy to re-consider all those bills. There are many issues including appointment of next CJ and pending 41 judges. Judiciary will continue to be the curve ball that will be hard to predict – and BBI I believe will be killed by judiciary.


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