I can feel some people bitterness as Deputy President William Ruto is set to sleep walk to statehouse in 2022 with Kikuyus laying the red carpet for him. So far so good – Uhuru will beat Raila next year like an isikuti drum, which is wildly expected – and delusional very old Raila, gets beaten again by Ruto in 2022.
I don’t think GEMA little men and women that we interact with are capable of making or guiding a political move. Many Kalenjin had even bigger reservation on President Uhuru Kenyata in 2002 and 2013 but see who they voted for? I will continue to watch their leaders. Don’t waste time listening to random Kikuyu or Kalenjin or Luo or Luhya, they move when the leader say move.
Ruto biggest threat in GEMA is a strong leader emerging outside President Uhuru – I don’t see that happening – while Uhuru is still politically adept and now that Jubilee is a big party — with so many non-Gema – folks who will frown and crush any such ambitious gema leader trying to mess up the apple cart. The GEMA leaders that will want to oppose Ruto will not be mainstream – the likes of angry Karau or the clueless Senator Njoroge— will not sway GEMA while Uhuru is there guiding the sheeps to Ruto presidency in 2012 and yet Ruto isn’t exactly “depending” on GEMA endorsing him. That was stupid Kalonzo and Madavadi move. You don’t do that. You go to GEMA from a point of strength. Ruto is running several threads; working hard to replace Raila as the de-facto Non-GEMA leader and seem to be succeeding while remaining loyal to GEMA base. You’ll see in 2017 who will end up with most leaders in Jubilee!
Jubilee party will end up with so many Mps, Governors and Senators – majority non-gema and directly loyal to Ruto – and therefore a Kikuyu upstart – will only break up part of Kikuyu vote — if Uhuru allows him to do that. You see, from 2008 to 2013, Raila confused sheep spend all day claiming Kalenjin will not vote for Uhuru – That never happened now the same people are claiming Kikuyus will not vote for Ruto. They console themselves that Ruto was paid and sold Kalenjin. the same Kalenjin who were suppose to be oil and kikuyu water were apparently sold.
Now 2017 is all forgotten – Uhuru will win and Kalenjin have endorsed that. Now btw now and 2022 — all we will hear – day and night – is how Kikuyu will not vote for Ruto – not with PEV – not with I don’t know what. It going to be a tired long song till the night of 2022.
Raila is Ruto biggest threat – and has been for sometime – ever seen he came with his NDP Trojan horse – and took off “KANU” or “Non-GEMA” constituency to LDP from Moi’s KANU – and then later Ruto took the remaining -Kamatusa – to form ODM. Ruto has Raila on his crosshair for that reason. Ruto has to work hard to bring back the “swing” non-big five tribe vote to his corner from Raila corner – so far I think he has done it — we just need 2017 election to confirm this. Once Ruto has the old Moi KANU constituency – 35% – of Kenya – then it questions of who to make a deal with – 1 or 2 of 2 OR 3 BIG TRIBES – GEMA are the first obvious choice thanks to gentleman Uhuru- but if things don’t work out – then Ruto will just need another big tribe – to take Deputy President slot & 50% of the vote. Therefore Ruto has to keep hitting Raila with everything he got. With Jubilee party – I expect to see Ruto finally upstaging the old, broke and tired Raila in 2017 –finally reducing ODM to its NDP core.
So don’t expect the war between Raila and Ruto to end – it not personal – it business – Ruto has to bring back COAST, KAMATUSA, Somalis and their allies and all small tribes back to home. The last election Ruto succeeded in bringing about half of them back – Raila still has about 50 non-gema MPS that Ruto wants. Raila if he remains with his original Luo constituency and GEMA remain as ever inward looking – then Ruto has NO REAL competitor for 2022.
The next election is bigger than Kalenjin – Ruto is looking into 2022. Ruto will be looking out for many small tribes. Ruto is focusing on 2022 – if it mean Uhuru getting 70% – that will be fine – as golden handshake – as long as he supports, endorses and campaign for Ruto to become President in 2022 – and nip any GEMA upstart from messing up the plan.
For the record, URP had 78 MPs: TNA 85 MPs: ODM 96 MPs. URP won everything in Mandera. That doesn’t sound Kalenjin. Won majority in Narok. Won all seats in Teso. Won half of Turkana. Won majority in Samburu. Won half of Isiolo and Marsabit. The only place that Uhuru messed up Ruto is coast. Ruto also messed up Uhuru in Gusii. I think both places are now softening enough for Ruto & Uhuru to take it over in 2017. Next year expect the tyranny to be even more tyrannically.
Ruto is really hardworking & brilliant. With his sheer brilliance and hardwork – I think Kenya will be developing so quickly.