The Political Dent Hon Ababu Exits Leaves in ODM

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Ababu may not be a factor in Budalangi but it is national profile that that makes his political departure much more impactive than Raila diehard supporters would like to admit.

Ababu may not write bestsellers like Miguna but he’s taking on Raila like no one has done in recent past. He criticized using riots to drive IEBC out of office. Ababu is voicing the majority opinion of the nation. Riots were overwhelmingly opposed by Kenyans yet Raila pushed on.

Ababu has also condemned Raila for conducting homecoming rallies for CORD politicians accused of hate speech. Raila condemned prayer rallies for ICC suspects and yet, he’s doing the same for alleged tribal inciters. What does say about Raila?

Ababu said something significant on his way out of the SG position: he apologized to Mudavadi for campaigning against a “brother.” we know the only staunch supporter left in Western is Oparanya. sospeter Ojaamong does not have the same political clout as Oparanya, Akaranga or his Busia counterpart. Khalwale is looking to take on Oparanya and all indication are that ODM didn’t want Khalwale to become a member of the select committee on IEBC since it’ll elevate his clout. In short, Western seem to be looking to back one or two candidates from the Mulembe nation. Ababu just added to that pile.

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Like Miguna, Ababu has potential to scuttle Raila’s votes in Western. He has given clout to dissenters. He’s a small man with a megaphone and brains. Better watch out. Ababu may not bring a lot of votes to either Amani or Jubilee, but surely he will deny Raila few votes here and there. And that is enough for Jubilee and Raila’s opponents. A large component of political viability in Kenya is made up of impressions & illusions. Raila’s whole (and only) deal is tisharing people that he is going to do this or that – riot/throw stones/mass protests, 2nd or 3rd revolution, tractor, hammer and all sorts of farm implements and genocide tools. When you start disassembling the Luhya support, the Coast, NEP and even Nairobi though, you isolate Raila into a very tight corner.


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Though Ababu and Otwoma do not command significant following as Ruto did, their quitting creates the perception that Raila has an inner group that is limited to Luos. This perception does not go well with other tribes, and will bring ODM down. Ababu has also cast Raila’s reliability in doubt. Many will recall that similar sentiments were expressed by Miguna. Many of us will recall too the vigor with which Ruto challenged the 2007 election results on behalf of Raila. Unfortunately we also recall the vigor with which Raila betrayed his base in striking a deal with Kibaki at Sagana. Finally, we will recall also the callousness with which Raila jettisoned Ruto from government; then proceeded to throw Kalenjins out of Mau as if they were second class citizens in Rift Valley.

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Via:Kenyan online

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