Uhuru is the guy who will make or break Ruto bid for presidency. As long as Uhuru want Ruto to be president, he can do it anytime. He can for example quit some few months to election and have Ruto become President. He has already made Ruto president for 3 days when he attended ICC. Ruto best bet is to stick with Uhuru. Gema as people cannot make you president. They never made Uhuru even an MP before Moi gave him a lift. Bottom-line is people need to understand the politics of Kenya more deeply. The tribal politics controlled by tribal lords. Luos may dislike kikuyus but if Raila turn up and says Karua tosha, 99% of Luos will vote there. The same can be said of major tribes.
There is flawed argument that Kikuyus will not vote for Ruto. It akin to argument Raila and his advisor banked on. That kalenjin will not vote for a Kikuyu just few years after killing and displacing a half million of them. That somehow Kikuyu and Kalenjin were oil and water. We now know that Kalenjin not only voted for Uhuru but are already decided on 2017. It is a kin to dilemma ICC found themselves in. All over sudden the tables were turned on them. Folks including victims and witnesses decided to “move on” leaving the ICC holding an empty bag.
People need to understand our tribal politics more deeply. GEMA as people are not sophisticated to go rogue on their leaders. Neither are Luos or Kambas or Kalenjin. These communities are “hostages” to political kingpins. Luhyas and other tribes do not have such strong leaders so they are more “free” to sort of choose ABC. If GEMA were sophisticated Martha Karua or Peter Kenneth would not have lost even in their own polling station. Then consider that come 2022, Kalenjin and Luhya will most likely be equal to Kikuyu vote. Kikuyu populations has dropped from 22% to 20% to 17.5% in 1999 and now it should be below 17% while Luhya and Kalenjin are at 14%.
After 50% plus 1 requirement; no community in Kenya can do it alone. Therefore it rather obvious that in 2017 or 2022 just like in 2013 coalition of big tribes has and must happen. Now it simple. in 2017– Ruto & Rift Valley best deal is to get 50% with GEMA. In 2022…it will be the same…GEMA can choose to scuttle the coalition with Rift Valley and both will ran to form other coalitions with rest of big tribes and both may end up with a bad deal or continue with 50-50.
It obvious 50-50 is the only deal after constitution 50% plus 1. Nobody can do it alone.