Jubilee 13 parties are slowly merging. Do you know who is behind and main beneficiary of this? If you don’t know what that means, I will let you know. It mean it become one big house for William Ruto. It is going to be impossible for GEMA rebel to splinter the party. Forming Jubilee is replica of how ODM was born via LDP/KANU coalition and that is all the leverage Raila now boast around like he was born with ODM party in his mouth.
Ofcourse Gema can bolt out after Uhuru; just like Kalenjin left ODM; with huge chunk; but Raila still has ODM to hide his Luo bedrock of support. So it is a good plan to merge Jubilee party. Parties joining Jubilee include New Ford Kenya (Kombo-Wamalwa), UDF, APK, Ford-People. Definitely Ruto will be running as Jubilee candidate in 2022.
Uhuru is gentleman who has shared power 50-50 for the last few yrs. He has always been a gentleman that is why Kalenjin supported him in 2002 and 2013 and they will be supporting him in 2017. I very much doubt he is interested in some GEMA “conspiracy” -if he was –he would not have stuck in KANU. Uhuru is interested in their family just continuing being powerful. So he’ll cut a deal that ensures a Kenyatta is the power behind the throne. With Ruto he will be assured of continued unrivaled access to power.
Unlike Kibaki, Uhuru has explicitly and publicly endorsed Ruto for 2017. He has so far adhered to 50-50 deal. Government is running so smoothly. Why would Uhuru spoil that as he goes to retire?
In the event that Uhuru suddenly turn around, he will throw his legacy to the winds and then GEMA will be in a very hard place. Thanks to 50% plus 1, they would have to find someone with Ruto clout to deputize them. There is nobody near Ruto apart from Raila. Then they will have to think about 1M of their people living in Rift Valley who will then be sitting ducks for arrows.
Uhuru for me will do what a reasonable person will do. He won’t risk his entire legacy by starting a war with Ruto & Rift Valley –just so some Peter Kenneth or Martha Karua to retain “Presidency” –something he is not assured of –even with 150% of GEMA vote. The deal here is for Ruto to ran with a GEMA running mate. If that does not happen, then there will be a big political implosion in Jubilee with each side assured to be a loser.
Uhuru like his father is the only person who will save GEMA from themselves. He has already done so the last few years. Kibaki instability for the last 10yrs has given in for a smooth government operation the last few years. Kibaki was a messed up dude who never made Uhuru President; Uhuru and Ruto made their pact early; ICC helping along; and the lazy Kalonzo never saw that coming. Kibaki to the last minute was probably thinking Mudavadi could do it.
Peter Kenneth made a huge blunder. He would have gone for governor and would be in succession for the Deputy President seat. There is no way some regular broke citizen coming from nowhere to be president in 2022. Kenneth should be running for Muranga governor so he can re-activate his political career. If Ruto has to watch out, he will watching out for governors like Kabogo or Mutua or any young Kikuyu minister like Kunjuri who might deluded to go for it and disregard Uhuru.
2017 is a done deal. I don’t think Ruto has a plan B for 2017 because Uhuru is a gentleman. The 3 top guys in Kenyan politics are; Raila/Ruto/Uhuru and the combination of any two–is enough–and any other combination or the 3 decide to run separately –mean we are going for second round.
I know some will say that Kikuyus will never vote for Ruto. Ooh, they have never voted for anyone else, blah blah blah. Let stop pretending that we know the future. We don’t. Neither can we predict. We can only speculate. If anybody were to take such guesswork seriously they would be like Raila now -hopeless. They previously repeated several times that Kikuyu and Kalenjin were oil and water and would never mix. Seem they have been mixing really well the last few years.
What befell Kalonzo, Mudavadi and Raila was expected because they had no strength or leverage. Kalonzo got 3 ministers for his 15mps. And that was all he could expect. Mudavadi had the same leverage – 5mps from Vihiga county Deputy Prime Minister. Raila had a bigger leverage and got a big share but lacked the temperament and the loyalty to be trusted by Kibaki & GEMA. He was just like his father Jaramogi; Impatient, unscrewed and emotional.
Ruto on the other is following Moi’s footstep – working hard behind the scenes building his support base touring the country relentless—while courting and being loyal to GEMA at the same time. Ruto is “sleep” walking to President in 2022.
Of course you’d be a fool to imagine Ruto is like Kalonzo or MaDVD sitting around waiting to be made President. He knows what it takes. A lot of money; hard work building alliances, friendships and patronage. In the meantime Ruto is not just a mere VP but a DP. He has nusu mkate but he doesn’t say. He controls half the government. His guys are running key ministries and parastatal. He wield real power that Raila can only dream of. People said GEMA was never going to let go of Finance & Internal security now see who rans the show. In every key ministry or parastatal, Ruto man is either head or deputy. CS or PS.
Ruto understand politics like no one else do. I just don’t see how he’ll miss presidency in 2022. His plan A is solid. His plan B is solidifying. It won’t be Namwabwa. It will be Eugene Wamalwa or Kindiki as backup plan -if some GEMA Jubilee rebel -was to remove GEMA plank from Jubilee –then Ruto will use Jubilee with someone like Eugene or Kindiki—
Ruto is doing so well I’d worry about Raila instead if I were those CORD guys advising Ruto that Kikuyus will not vote for him. Raila has is staring a defeat in 2017. the’re worrying about somebody enjoying 50-50 for the next 6yrs
Plan A for Ruto in 2022 is that Uhuru will resign few months to election and let Ruto ran as incumbent.