I have been seeing some Kieleweke surrogates like Mutahi Ngunyi trying belittle the Deputy President saying he contributed little to President Uhuru win. Let me remind them that DP Ruto unlike other politicians has never stagnated in his political career because he works very hard.
William Ruto of 2020 is not the William Ruto of 5 or 10 years ago. But the likes of Mutahi Ngunyi are blinded by their silly arm chair analysis. When UDM was hijacked before the 2013 elections, William Ruto formed URP and participated in the 2013 General Elections. That was Ruto then – a mere MP facing ICC and he was not contesting for Presidency.
Maybe Mutahi Ngunyi and Kieleweke surrogates were blind and deaf then and now, let me remind them how URP performed nearly 10 years ago – we cannot use presidential election because Ruto gave Uhuru his.
In the 2013 elections, TNA had majority in 9 county assemblies – URP had in 7 counties – ODM had in 8 counties.
The county assembly breakdown:
1. ODM 366 MCA in 34 counties
2. TNA 335 MCA in 32 counties
3. URP 242 MCA in 29 counties
When it came to governors, URP had beaten TNA 10 to 8. Now that was Ruto – a mere MP – facing ICC. I know Mutahi Ngunyi and his Kieleweke surrogates wish William Ruto would remain a Kalenjin leader but the man went national long time ago.
When it came to 2017 – Jubilee merged and generally improved their figures by 7-10%. Check the Summery below:
SEATS WON PER PARTY IN THE 2017 GENERAL ELECTION
|Political party||Elected MPS||WOMAN REP||SENATE||GOVERNOR|
|5) FORD K||10||1||1||2|
Jubilee has 140 of the national assembly’s 290 constituencies, while Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement got 62 members. (Remove Wajir West Hon. Kolosh from ODM and add to Jubilee, Remove Ugenya Seat and that of the Late hon. Dori from Msambeni and ODM remains with 59 MPs in the 290 Constituencies and Jubilee 141)
We know most of the improvement didn’t come from President Uhuru Kenyatta but from DP Ruto campaigns in areas like Western, Coast, Gusii and Ukambani and they paid off.
Fast forward to 2020, William Ruto is right in Mt. Kenya heartland. At worst he may split with Uhuru protege, at best – he may lead a GEMA revolt. That is why William Ruto killed URP like he did KANU. His future strategy was to tightly couple with Mt. Kenya making it very hard for any breakup to follow tribal lines. Jubilee break up won’t be on TNA/URP well know fault-lines. It will be on Jubilee Asili and Jubilee Corona fault lines. For William Ruto, he will seek to carry the original dream/vision of Jubilee (Jubilee 1.0) while the Jubilee Corona will carry BBI/handshake impostor of Raila.
Now imagine if William Ruto had remained in ODM? He would be like Mudavadi – abused and name it. Or like Kalonzo derided despite twice standing down for Raila Odinga. William Ruto is just 54 years – and has achieved a lot.
Ruto took a gamble to form Jubilee because he needed to tightly couple with GEMA. The fact that he has survived this long despite President Uhuru fighting him for 3 years now – is testament that his gamble wasn’t a bad idea. Imagine if it was URP-TNA – it would be have been easy to divorce URP – now it’s hard for President Uhuru – he has party official – but he doesn’t have party members – otherwise he would have called for elections. When Tuju and Murathe failed to run Jubilee nomination – President Uhuru had to call DP Ruto and he fixed it in 3 days. Now the incompetent duo of Murathe and Tuju are running the party.
Does William Ruto regret folding URP to form Jubilee? Of course not – when he had opportunity in Jubilee – he made his mark.
For those jokers and those who are amateurs in Kenyan politics who still think Raila Odinga has some magic in politic, I have got news for you. Those of us who watched Mois, Matibas, Jaramogi, Kibaki – then small boys like Raila – before he became big – knows politics is dynamic. Most of Raila Supporters are stuck in 2007 when Raila was all that. Raila at age of Ruto run in NDP and came short at 10%.
Let talk about ODM.
ODM began with 50% of parliament in 2007. About 106 MPs in 2007 – that would 170 MPs now. As of 2017, 10 years later ODM had 59 MPs in the 290 constituencies. Including zero Mp in Gusiiland (apart from Arati in Nairobi), zero Mp in Bukusu (save for Saboti MP Caleb Amisi), zero MP in North Eastern (Apart from Wajir North MP). Zero MPs in Central and Eastern and 6 MPs in the expansive Rith Valley. (3 in Turkana who have jumped ship, 1 in Narok (Kenta), 1 in Kajiado (Memusi) and 1 in Trans-Nzoia (Saboti).
ODM now is close to becoming a Luo party
|Total Elected ODM MP and Women Reps = 70|
Once the Mijikenda (Coast) bolts out and they are on their way out, the ODM becomes the former NDP. I can predict ODM number in 2022 will reduce from 62 to 40 MPs. Meanwhile Ruto running alone is likely to end up with 40% of all MPs – about 130 MPs. So far we know that Mt. Kenya has refused to board MV Corona with Raila Odinga welcoming them aboard.
For President Uhuru, we don’t know his plan if he has any beyond looting for the final time.
Worst – case scenario for William Ruto in 2022.
1. He will most likely sweep entire Rift Valley as a start including GEMA diaspora. That is 25% head start. I think some Turkana and Matusa who had entertained Raila woke up recently.
2. William Ruto is the man to beat in Bukusuland. I believe Wetangula and his guys like Chris Wamalwa in Kitale – are interested in merger with William Ruto for local reasons (they want to be governors of Bungoma and Trans-nzoia). William Ruto is the man to beat in about half of Kakamega.
3. William Ruto will carry the Pastoralist vote of North Eastern. Firing Duale was a dumb move.
4. William Ruto will carry about half of Coast – ODM has mistreated their only reliable partner – and there is going to be huge fallout. Mijikenda will form their own party. The Kilifi-Kwale governor will probably cut a deal with anybody but Raila. William Ruto looks natural partner for them.
5. Now the big one is Nairobi, Eastern and Central. William Ruto worse case scenario will get half of those votes as long as he has his running mate from there. Nairobi is going to be interesting.
As you can see Ruto is already racing toward 50% in first round. That is why BBI crowd are scared. A Kikuyu elite candidate like Peter Kenneth cannot beat William Ruto. Raila Odinga cannot be sold in GEMA.
Ruto just need to stay alive. Once President Uhuru realize DP Ruto is unstoppable he will cut a deal and cut his boys loose.